What are Models?
A model is a transferable, simplified structure of complex reality. A good model doesn’t aim to describe reality completely — it distills the most critical structural relationships so you can quickly understand and apply them across different domains.All models are wrong, but some are useful. — George BoxModels are “design patterns” — just as a programmer doesn’t reinvent sorting algorithms from scratch, a clear thinker shouldn’t rebuild frameworks for understanding the world from zero every time. This category covers 35 core mental models, organized into four groups:
- Decision Models: make more rational choices under uncertainty
- Systems Models: understand how complex systems operate
- Game Theory & Economics: understand conflict, cooperation, and incentives
- Analytical Frameworks: systematically analyze situations
Decision Models
Mental Models
Build a reusable library of cognitive frameworks
Opportunity Cost
Every choice has a hidden cost — what you didn’t choose
Expected Value
Evaluate options by probability-weighting each potential outcome
Regret Minimization Framework
Project to age 80 — which choice will you regret least?
Decision Tree
Visualize decisions, chances, and outcomes in a branching structure
Eisenhower Matrix
Classify tasks by importance and urgency to prioritize action
OODA Loop
Observe, Orient, Decide, Act — a rapid response cycle
Multi-Armed Bandit
Balance exploring new options against exploiting what already works
Margin of Safety
Leave buffer between your estimate and reality
Circle of Competence
Know the boundaries of your expertise; act within them
Systems Models
Feedback Loops
Positive loops amplify; negative loops stabilize
Flywheel Model
Consistent small efforts accumulate into unstoppable momentum
Compounding Model
Exponential growth: the magic of time × consistency
S-Curve Model
Growth follows a slow start → rapid expansion → plateau arc
Network Effects
The more users, the more valuable the product
Stock and Flow
Understand the relationship between accumulated quantities and rates of change
Causal Loop Diagram
Visualize how system variables influence each other
The Map Is Not the Territory
A description of reality is not reality itself
Iceberg Model
Visible events are driven by deeper, invisible structures
Antifragility Model
Some systems don’t merely survive disorder — they benefit from it
Game Theory & Economics
Prisoner's Dilemma
Why rational individuals fail to achieve optimal cooperation
Nash Equilibrium
A state where no player can improve by unilaterally changing strategy
Tragedy of the Commons
How shared resources are depleted by self-interested behavior
Principal-Agent Model
How misaligned incentives lead to organizational failure
Supply-Demand Model
How prices balance supply and demand
Black Swan Model
Rare, high-impact events that are rationalized only after the fact
Normal Distribution
The bell curve that governs countless natural phenomena
Fat-Tailed Distribution
Extreme events are far more common than normal distributions predict
Analytical Frameworks
Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs
From physiological survival to self-actualization — a pyramid of human needs
SWOT Analysis
Systematically evaluate Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats
Porter's Five Forces
Five dimensions for analyzing competitive industry structure
BCG Matrix
Classify business units by market growth rate and relative share
Cynefin Framework
Categorize problems as Simple, Complicated, Complex, or Chaotic
Johari Window
A model for understanding self-awareness and mutual understanding
Diffusion of Innovation
How new ideas spread through populations over time